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TA: Ethereum is Showing Early Signs of Fresh Rally, But 100 SMA is the Key

Ethereum started a fresh increase above the $3,750 level against the US Dollar. ETH price is now struggling to gain pace above the $3,850 zone.

Ethereum started a steady increase above the $3,700 zone and $3,750.
The price is trading above $3,750 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
There is a key bullish trend lien forming with support near $3,780 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
The pair must stay above the 100 hourly SMA to avoid a fresh decline in the near term.

Ethereum Price Starts Decent Increase

Ethereum formed a base above $3,600 and started a fresh increase. ETH was able to climb above the $3,750 resistance zone to move into a positive zone.

There was a clear move above the $3,800 level and the 100 hourly simple moving average. A new weekly high was formed near $3,854 and the price is now consolidating gains. There was a minor decline below the $3,840 and $3,820 levels.

The price traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $3,622 swing low to $3,854 high. It is now trading near $3,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Ethereum Price
Source: ETHUSD on TradingView.com

An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $3,820 level. The next major resistance is near the $3,850 level. A clear upside break above the $3,850 level could pump the price towards $4,000. Any more gains could send the price towards the $4,120 level. The main resistance is near the $4,200 level.

Downside Break in ETH?

If ethereum fails to start a fresh increase above the $3,850 level, it could start a downside correction. An initial support on the downside is near the $3,780 level or the trend line. The first key support is now forming near the $3,865 and the 100 hourly SMA.

A downside break below the 100 hourly SMA could put a lot of pressure on the bulls. In the stated case, the price could decline towards the $3,740 support zone in the near term. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent increase from the $3,622 swing low to $3,854 high.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACDThe MACD for ETH/USD is now losing pace in the bullish zone.

Hourly RSIThe RSI for ETH/USD is near the 50 level.

Major Support Level – $3,750

Major Resistance Level – $3,850

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